среда, 30 мая 2012 г.

Energy 2.

By Jason Rodriguez, CEO and Director of Research, Zpryme

Zpryme, in partnership with Clasma, recently developed a 10-year Smart Grid Roadmap to assess the progression of the smart grid within the context of Energy 2.0.

Jason Rodriguez, CEO, Director of Research, Zpryme

«Energy 2. 0 is an exciting realization of the convergence of information and energy systems,» Anto Budiardjo, President and CEO of Clasma Events Inc., explained to Zpryme. «It’s the implementation of M2M (Machine-to-Machine and IOT (Internet of Things, specifically targeted at the most challenging problem of our times; how to ensure our society has sufficient clean and affordable energy for the decades to come.»

The roadmap is intended to enhance collaboration efforts across industry stakeholders and is centered on six major stakeholder groups that will design and build the next-generation grid. These include government, energy suppliers (utilities, technology vendors, energy demand (homes, transportation, buildings, etc., entrepreneurs and investors, and consumers.

The Smart Grid Roadmap identifies several key industry drivers and 15 major findings. The key drivers and several of the major findings are summarized below.

Smart Grid Drivers

Overall, the foundation for smart grid development has been solidified by world government commitments to bring power to those who currently do not have it and to increase the overall reliability of electricity distribution systems.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 1.3 billion people around the world did not have access to electricity in 2009. IEA data also shows that global utility losses totaled 1.7 trillion kWh or about 9 percent of all electricity generation in 2009.

Between 2009 and 2011, world governments provided financial support totaling $123 billion for smart grid projects being implemented between 2009 and 2020. These same government targets are aimed at deploying 685 million smart meters and 20 million electric vehicles (EV by 2020. As of 2012, 31 governments have initiated 267 smart grid projects around the world. 

Next, an increasing awareness about global warming and a strong desire to protect the environment are further driving the demand for clean energy technologies. Today, 66 countries have renewable energy targets in place. In fact, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA, world renewable energy net generating capacity is projected to increase by 2,152 billion kWh or 48 percent from 2012 to 2022. This accounts for 38 percent of the net increase in world electric generating capacity during this time period.

Entrepreneurs, investors, and major technology vendors are aggressively developing and investing in technologies and companies that provide proprietary solutions for the smart grid. From 2007 to 2011, venture capitalists invested $2.2 billion in firms developing or offering smart grid solutions. From 2010 to 2011, another $6. 0 billion in mergers and acquisitions was spent by major technology vendors to purchase smart grid specific firms. Fueled by Eaton Corp.’s recent acquisition of Cooper Industries, smart grid related mergers and acquisitions totaled $12.21 billion during the first five months of 2012. 

According to Jon Arnold, Principal of J Arnold Associates, «There’s a great opportunity for entrepreneurs to innovate and help make smart grid relevant for everyone, especially since there is a strong desire to conserve energy among consumers. This ties into the broader vision of Energy 2. 0 where communications technology has a key role in helping utilities deliver the right solutions and engage consumers as partners in the journey.»

Finally, the world is becoming increasingly connected, thus increasing the demand for energy information over the Internet and mobile devices. As of May 2012, the ITU reported that 5.9 billion people (87 percent of the world population used a mobile phone, and 2.3 billion people had Internet access. Over the next 10 years, the connected economy will leverage new platforms, such as cloud computing, to deliver new and cost-effective energy applications to utilities and their customers.

Roadmap Key Findings

  • Although multiple smart grid pilots, demonstrations and national deployments are currently underway in the U.S. and across the globe, smart grid technology is still in a relatively introductory phase.

2007 – 2012: With the exception of a handful of utilities, this phase of smart grid technology implementation can be characterized as a period of Planning, Pilots, Design, Research and Installation. Even though billions of dollars have been poured into smart grid technology to date, the majority of these efforts are just now moving past an installation phase.

2012 – 2017: The next five years will define the future of the smart grid. This phase can be characterized as one of Testing, Installation, Validation and Verification.   The next five years will be make-or-break for entrepreneurs and technology vendors as their equipment, solutions, software and systems will be expected to yield positive returns for utilities.

2017 – 2022: If all goes according to plan, this phase can be characterized as Grid Optimization and Advanced Technology Integration. During this phase, utility systems and customers will start to truly reap the benefits of smart grid technology. An optimized grid will allow utilities to maximize asset utilization, control and monitor, and manage their entire electric system, and allow their customers to embrace advanced energy management applications.

  • Over the next 10 years, utilities that embrace smart grid technology will shift from a ratepayer-centric business model to a customer-centric business model. From 2012 to 2017, these utilities invest heavily in AMI, ICTs, distribution automation technologies, and transmission monitoring technologies. From 2017 to 2022, these utilities will aggressively implement energy storage, ICTs, distributed generation, V2G and B2G, and customer-level networks, devices, applications, software and systems. 
     
  • Major world governments, led by the EU, China, and U.S., have laid out detailed smart grid plans for their respective countries. These contributions will build the foundation for the future growth and development of the smart grid over the next 10 years.
  • Over the next 10 years, the role of government should shift from one that provides funding, collaboration, and RD support to one that mainly provides oversight, regulation, and collaboration support.
  • From 2012 to 2017, smart grid technology vendors with solutions that enable, support or enhance AMI and distribution automation will see strong revenue gains. 
  • By 2022, entrepreneurs and investors will take the lead in developing next-generation smart grid solutions and technologies. Significant opportunities lie in M2M, V2G, B2G, home area networks, sensors, energy storage and renewable integration systems and software, and mobile energy management applications.
  • Over the next 10 years, consumer devices and applications such as HEMS/HANs/Portals, Displays, Smart Appliances, and Mobile Energy Apps will progress from an RD phase to growth phase.

Outlook

The Energy 2. 0 vision and technology progression presented in the Smart Grid Roadmap represent the possibilities when smart grid integrates with other forms of urban infrastructure – water, gas, roads, transit, public safety, waste management, etc. – to help build and run smarter cities.

Global urbanization is accelerating rapidly, and all of these elements will need to be more centrally managed to keep pace. This is very much the domain of technology companies, especially those with strength in networking and IT. However, the next five years will be make-or-break for entrepreneurs and technology vendors as their equipment, solutions, software and systems will be expected to yield positive returns to utilities.

At the end of the day, the Energy 2.0 vision and evolution of the smart grid network will radically transform modern day energy, electricity, and communications markets. It is imperative that governments, utilities, entrepreneurs and technology vendors understand that building an advanced smart grid are just the first steps of this transformation process.

About the Author
Jason Rodriguez spearheads strategy and market research projects for clients in the clean-tech, renewable energy, smart grid, semiconductor, automotive, mobile device and IT industries. Recently, Rodriguez has led the development of significant industry reports on smart appliances, V2G, advanced metering infrastructure, demand response technology, consumer smart grid attitudes, private and public networks, electric vehicles and renewable energy for the smart grid. Rodriguez has held prior roles as an analyst in the energy industry for Pedernales Electric Cooperative Inc. , Verizon Wireless, the Institute for Business Home Safety, and the Center for Economic Development Research at the University of South Florida.

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