Vienna Stock Exchange: Winners and Losers (2012-02-01)

SRC Research has confirmed the Buy for s Immo, but slightly lower the target price from € 7.50 to € 7.00. The analysts wrote in a note to investors: «Major focus of the company in the current year 2012 will be to streamline the balance sheet and enhancing earnings performance than in starting new project developments in uncertain times. The management wants to take advantage of the high demand in particular for residential properties in Germany and also Austria and deliver some more good sale transactions. The newly generated liquidity will not be used for new investments but rather for the buyback of shares and participating certificates. Indeed, the measure is quite easy to understand, as direct real estate investors are willing to pay a high premium on company's property book values, incredible 30% in the first nine months of the year as reported, on the other hand the stock exchange trades the S IMMO share with a discount of more than 50% to book values. The participating certificates note with a 14% discount on their book values. Thus, to prove sustainability of property book values and take advantage of the low share and participating certificates prices is the best way to handle these market irregularities. We expect a more challenging environment to come for most financing needs in many CEE/ SEE countries with rising equity stakes and probably also rising interests and stricter covenants but after our management talks with S IMMO we have the impression that S IMMO is in a comfortable situation for its property financing in all countries and thus we more or less stick to our projections for the net financial result which we gave after the 9M results. We adjusted our PL on account of management's strategy and assume lower rental earnings for 2012 and 2013 but also slightly lifted net gains from property disposals. Portfolio value is also supposed to shrink in particular in 2012 to about € 1.9bn due to the plan of some more sale transactions. For 2013 we assume portfolio additions to compensate property disposals, thus portfolio value should be more or less unchanged or only slightly come down».

This year’s road show season starts on 2 February 2012 with an investor conference in London organized jointly by Vienna Stock Exchange and Erste Group. At the London road show, eleven exchange-listed top companies will present themselves to London-based fund managers at one-on-one talks and small group presentations: ATS, Austrian Post, BWT, Erste Group Bank, Immofinanz, Kapsch TrafficCom, Lenzing, Polytec, Strabag, Vienna Insurance Group and Wolford. Around 80 meetings with almost 40 institutional investors have been arranged in advance, the Vienna Stock Exchange informed.

In a oil gas sector report, analysts of Berenberg Bank recommend OMV at Hold and price target € 27.00. Robust yoy earnings growth (typically 20% for the oil sector in 2011 was mainly driven by higher oil prices, analysts say. Analysts expect revised consensus forecasts now to be more realistic, although they note that some of the US oils reporting (e.g. Hess, Oxy, Chevron to date have still fallen short of expectations. Berenberg analysts note that there is still potential downside risk to Q4 forecasts at OMV which has yet to publish its Q4 trading statement (due on 3 February.

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